FORECASTING OF MAIZE AREA AND PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

The present study was conducted to check the trend analysis of area and production for Maize in Pakistan. The findings of the study are based on Maize area and production data during the years (1990 to 2011). Four Models of trend analysis were applied .The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model, Exponential Trend Model and S-curve Model. The most appropriate Model for trend analysis of the present study was Quadratic Trend Model. The data was taken from FAO statistics (2010) and Forecasting of the data was done up to 2017. The forecasted area of Maize in Pakistan would be 1031.07, 1034.23, 1036.94, 1039.19, 1040.98 and 1042.32 ha, and the forecasted production of Maize in Pakistan would be 4554.48, 4881.23, 5223.19, 5580.35, 5952.72 and 6340.29 thousands ton respectively for the years 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.  Forecast values are very close to actual values and have positive increasing trend in Pakistan. Positive increase is due to availability of high yielding varieties, proper use of inputs and in time availability of inputs for Maize in Pakistan.